CMC Invest data show Australian retail investors continued buying SpaceX after the shares fell below their US$135 IPO price, while limited free float, cautious analyst coverage and upcoming lock-up expiries shape the next phase of trading.
On 22 July 2026, Australian investment platform CMC Invest said in its half-yearInside Investreport that SpaceX shares rapidly became one of the most actively traded US stocks on the platform after being made available. Although the share price had fallen below the US$135 offer price, client orders remained heavily skewed towards buying. According to the report, 91% of SpaceX orders placed by the platform’s clients during the first half of 2026 were buy orders. Between 1 July and 22 July 2026, buy orders still accounted for 88%. SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq on 12 June 2026 following an IPO priced at US$135 per share, which the source material described as the largest initial public offering in history. The shares closed below the offer price for the first time on 16 July, with the report citing a Friday closing price of US$115.07.
(Source: CMC Invest, half-yearInside Investreport, published: 22 July 2026, sections covering SpaceX order flow and trading rankings on the platform.)
Retail Investors Continue Buying SpaceX Below Its IPO Price
Data disclosed by CMC Invest point to a pattern that runs counter to the conventional assumption that investors retreat when newly listed shares fall below their offer price: weaker prices did not produce a corresponding decline in buying interest among Australian retail investors. Within weeks of becoming available on the platform, SpaceX had become its fourth most actively traded US stock, while buying momentum showed “almost no sign of slowing” after the shares fell below the issue price. In terms of order composition, the proportion of buy orders edged down from 91% in the first half of the year to 88% during the July observation period, but remained overwhelmingly dominant.
The trading context included:
The IPO was priced at US$135 per share, with public trading beginning on 12 June;
The shares closed below the offer price for the first time on 16 July, confirming that they had fallen below their IPO price;
The Friday closing price cited in the report was US$115.07, representing a daily decline of 2.7%;
The shares had fallen 32% from their June peak, highlighting substantial early-stage volatility;
CMC Invest’s figures cover physical share orders only and exclude contracts for difference, perpetual contracts and other derivatives.
Analysts Adopt a More Cautious Position
Sell-side views have become more restrained than they were immediately after the listing. HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson initiated coverage of SpaceX with a “Hold” rating and a target price of US$115, below the US$135 paid by investors in the IPO. The gap between the target price and the offer price creates a contrast between continued retail buying and cautious institutional analysis: one side is focused on obtaining long-term exposure, while the other is paying closer attention to valuation, free float and an incomplete post-listing price-discovery process.
Limited Free Float Amplifies Early Price Volatility
In explaining the early trading structure, the report emphasised supply conditions. Only around 5% of SpaceX shares were available for trading following the listing, leaving the share price highly sensitive to marginal changes in demand. When the number of tradable shares is limited, even relatively modest net inflows or outflows can cause prices to move sharply higher or lower. This mechanism was considered a contributing factor to the 32% decline from the June peak and also helps explain why order-flow indicators and share-price performance may appear contradictory at the same time.
| Date or Period | Price/Order Metric | Market Significance | Subsequent Variable |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 June 2026 | IPO priced at US$135 and trading begins | Record-sized IPO enters public price discovery | Free float limited to approximately 5% |
| 16 July 2026 | First close below the offer price | Fall below the IPO price confirmed, testing risk appetite | Sell-side coverage becomes more cautious |
| 1 July to 22 July 2026 | Buy orders account for 88% of CMC client orders | Retail demand continues after the shares fall below the offer price | Data exclude derivatives |
| Friday cited in the report | Closes at US$115.07, down 2.7% | 32% below the peak | Lock-up expiry and first quarterly results approaching |
CMC Invest market analyst Henry Fisher classified SpaceX as a “newly accessible” stock, referring to an asset that had previously been difficult to access but became available to retail clients after listing. He said the demand demonstrated investor appetite for such assets and described volatility as an enduring feature of investing rather than a temporary phase. This statement represents the firm’s interpretation of individual client behaviour and does not constitute a forecast of the share-price direction.
Rival Platforms Offered Different Products Linked to the Same Asset
During spring 2026, brokers, cryptocurrency trading platforms and proprietary trading firms competed to provide SpaceX exposure before the company’s formal listing. The products differed in structure and risk profile, but all sought to capture retail demand for a scarce, large-scale technology asset around the IPO.
CMC Invest’s parent company, FTSE 250 constituent CMC Markets, launched a SpaceX grey-market spread-betting product andCFDin May 2026;
Binance launched a USDT-margined pre-IPO perpetual contract on the same day;
Bitget launched a token named preSPAX under its IPO Prime product range in April 2026;
PU Prime opened a pre-IPO CFD under the symbol SPCXUSD on 29 May 2026;
Liechtenstein-based proprietary trading firm The Trading Pit promoted funded accounts around the first trading day.
Some pre-listing products did not continue after formal trading began. On 12 June 2026, Binance, Bybit, Bitget Wallet and MEXC cancelled their respective tokenised SpaceX allocations and refunded subscribers because xStocks was unable to obtain the underlying shares. Synthetic exposure did not disappear entirely: MEXC had already recorded US$7.1 billion in SpaceX futures trading volume, while Pepperstone said it would expand perpetual CFDs from individual shares to metals, indices and energy products. These derivatives activities should be distinguished from CMC Invest’s physical share-order data and should not be treated as representing the same flow of funds.
The Same Behavioural Pattern Extends to Weak ASX Shares
CMC Invest said a similar pattern of buying more as prices declined was also evident in Australian shares. CSL, WiseTech Global and Xero were all among the platform’s most actively traded Australian stocks during the first half of the year, despite their respective share-price declines of 33.7%, 51.7% and 36.6%. Approximately 80% of client orders for the three stocks were buy orders. All three faced pressure from earnings downgrades and the repricing of highly valued growth shares, while WiseTech was also affected by corporate-governance and key-person risks.
Not all shares experienced one-sided buying. As the share prices of BHP and Woodside Energy rose, their order flows became more evenly balanced between buying and selling, which CMC Invest interpreted as investors taking profits. The broker’s historical data indicate that the bias towards buying is not new: approximately 75% of Australian client trades in 2025 were buy orders, with the four largestETFsranking among the most actively traded instruments. Other platforms have reported similar observations. In April 2026, eToro said retail investors had increased their exposure to energy, mining and software shares during the first quarter, with the number of investors holding Chevron rising by 60%.
The implications for platforms and the wider industry include:
Retail order flow can remain net positive during declining markets, challenging brokers’ assumption that falling prices necessarily lead to redemptions;
Large IPOs, tokenised allocations, perpetual contracts and physical shares use different measurement methodologies, requiring the asset structure to be defined before data are compared;
Price discovery in low-float shares is more likely to be amplified by concentrated order flow;
Growth-stock valuation resets, earnings revisions and corporate-governance events may simultaneously increase trading activity and deepen price declines.
Increased Supply and First Quarterly Results Become the Next Focus
Only a small proportion of SpaceX shares was sold in the IPO. The first lock-up periods are due to expire within weeks, allowing long-term shareholders to begin selling and potentially increasing the number of tradable shares by approximately four times. During the same period, SpaceX is expected to publish its first quarterly results as a listed company. The combination of increased tradable supply and financial disclosure will test the current trading structure, which has been supported by scarcity, thematic demand and retail buying.
The outstanding questions centre on three areas: the actual pace at which long-term shareholders sell after the lock-up restrictions expire; whether the quarterly results can justify the company’s valuation and growth expectations; and whether the 88% share of buy orders among CMC Invest clients can be sustained after the tradable share capital expands. For trading platforms, the central issue is not simply whether SpaceX shares rise or fall, but whether a high-profile asset will continue attracting concentrated, counter-trend retail inflows during a period marked by a post-IPO decline, increased supply and intensive financial disclosure.
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